Friday, October 08, 2004

Spin Harder

I know parties always are spinning that their guy won after a debate, their guy's going to win, etc., etc. But I think it's also quite clear that the Democrats are making the Kerry's-going-to-win theme unusually central to their efforts this year. For example, they actually are taking on-line polls seriously.

This intense focus on making it appear that Kerry's got a real shot (like other spin, it's irrelevant to the spinners whether it's true or not) tends to confirm, if I may say so, my Kerry/None of the Above Swing Voter Theory. To reiterate, I think the key to understanding most of the recent movement in the polls (and to the eventual outcome, probably) is to realize that the movement is mainly between Kerry and None (or between Kerry and not being counted as a likely voter). These people -- a sizeable number -- are the Bush haters who don't much like Kerry either (maybe these guys). They won't show up for Kerry in - or at - the polls unless he's got a real chance to win.

The Kerry campaign's focus on these people is confirmed by their post debate spin, which again focuses on Who Won? instead of making any arguments about policy. Just might work, too.