Tuesday, October 19, 2004

Bush & the black vote

Mickey Kaus points to this poll showing that Bush's share of the black vote has doubled from 9 to 18% and notes that if true, it's a "potential disaster for Kerry." I say it's probably even worse than one might think at first glance, since one can assume those 9% who've apparently switched have the typical zealotry of a convert. They thus are very likely to vote - it takes something important to convert someone from ingrained beliefs and behaviors, after all - and very unlikely to change their minds back, even if they are told that, say, Dick Cheney's daughter is gay.

I'd also guess those 9% were not among the hardest-core Democrats in the past, and thus may be mainly new voters, not just switchers, meaning they are kicked out of your typical "likely voter" model. Could this explain the paradox of Bush often doing better among registered voters than likely voters?